ENTHUSIASM GAP GROWING: Say hello to “President Trump” while Democrats suffer a bloodbath come November

by John Boch

On March 2nd, we explored the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans in this primary season. READING THE TEA LEAVES: Hillary’s in for rough sledding, as are all Democrats in November.

In it, I wrote:

“The interest in the primary races this year have been quite telling. Republicans have been turning out in droves to vote, with turnout averaging 61% more than 2008. Democrat participation, on the other hand, has been in the toilet – down by an average of 23% in states so far from 2008.”

I’ve been crunching raw numbers this morning and here’s what I found, comparing the percentage increase or decrease in turnout from the 2008 primaries. (Percentages are missing in states where they haven’t held primaries for the respective parties).

	Rep	Dem
Alabama	55%	-26%
Alaska	60%
Iowa	57%	-44%
New Hampshire	20%	-13%
Idaho	77%
SC	66%	-31%
Nevada	70%	14%
Louisiana	93%	-19%
Arkansas	274%	29%
Colorado		1%
Georgia	34%	-28%
Mass	26%	-3%
Minn	79%	-4%
Oklahoma	37%	-20%
Tenn	55%
Texas	108%	-50%
Vermont	53%	-13%
Virginia	109%	-21%
Kansas	282%	6%
Nebraska		-13%
Maine	239%	-1%
Michigan	52%	98%
Mississippi	182%	-49%
Florida	17%	-5%
Illinois	40%	-3%
Missouri	55%	-25%
North Carolina	97%	-32%
Ohio	95%	-46%

Average change	90%	-12%

Republicans have been wildly enthusiastic, growing turnout by 90% on average in each state.

Democrat turnout has languished in the toilet, sinking 12% on average.

That’s a 102% differential in enthusiasm, and that’s a substantial increase from the spread after March 1 Super Tuesday, when there was “only” an 84% differential.

In that March 2 piece, I also wrote:

If this trend holds to any significant degree, two things are going to happen.

1. Get used to saying “President Trump”.

and

2. It’s going to be a bloodbath for Democrats all the way down the ballot.