Oral arguments in our challenge (consolidated under the Barnett case) to Governor Pritzker’s beloved “Protect” Illinois Communities Act are scheduled for Monday, September 22 at the US Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals on South Dearborn Street in Chicago. 2pm is the start time and each side gets 45 minutes.
Analysis: Here’s where I believe this will go. Even before Harmeet Dhillon and the US Department of Justice dropped their bunker-buster amicus curiae brief on the Seventh Circuit right before Father’s Day, I had a pretty good feeling about us winning at the 3-judge panel level.
If we did pull that off, it’s a given that Kwame Raoul will ask for an en banc review where the entire panel of active judges on the Seventh (roughly a baker’s dozen) will review the case and decide if they want to review it and issue an en banc ruling or if they want to leave it alone.
Before the DOJ “friend of the court” brief squarely on our side, I thought we were going to lose the en banc.
Again, the amicus curiae brief was a bombshell, basically telling the world that the US Government (via the DOJ) believes Pritzker’s gun and magazine ban are unconstitutional. The brief also urged the Seventh not to, ahem, foul this up.
I think that will be the deciding factor. It’ll be a close vote on the en banc, but I think they’ll let the 3-judge panel decision stand. And that’ll be the end of it.
There’s no way Kwame’s going to ask the US Supreme Court to review the case because if they did, it would likely end the gun and mag bans nationwide. If he quits at the 7th Circuit, the reversal will only apply to Illinois, and the rest of the Seventh Circuit. If SCOTUS rules on it, then that will have national precedent.
As much as I’d love for that to happen, and as much as I know Kwame Raoul is not a smart cookie, I’m pretty sure he’s not that stupid.